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 Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 12:52 AM |
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Joined: Dec 01, 2003
Posts: 2507
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I like to fly airplanes, so weather and climate are
of more than casual interest to me. It is a simple
fact that despite the best computers and best efforts
of some really smart people, weather cannot be forecast
with much practical accuracy more than 48 hours into
the future, and frequently the forecast is proven
completely off the mark. How are we seriously to
accept "computer models" for climate in the distant
past and future?
Tom Pappano
Tulsa, Oklahoma |
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 01:51 AM |
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 2656
Location: Minneapolis
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Quote:
What part of al gore's movie isnt proven scientific fact?
I also don't have time for leftist propoganda, so will not watch Gore's movie. The name of it is something like "The Convenient Lie" or something like that.
Anyway, IIRC the debate surrounds the relationship between warming and CO2. Gore and his ilk claim that CO2 emissions cause warming, but from what I've heard the evidence shows that the vast majority of CO2 is CAUSED by warming. Apparently this is proven by a multi-decade delay where warming precedes the CO2. |
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 02:05 AM |
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Joined: Jun 21, 2002
Posts: 679
Location: Canberra, Australia
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| The worst greenhouse gas is water vapour but, because we can't do anything about that, it is 'conveniently' ignored. CO2 has a much smaller effect. |
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 02:14 AM |
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Joined: Jan 03, 2004
Posts: 1639
Location: Apalachin, NY, USA
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cpluscon wrote:
I also don't have time for leftist propoganda, so will not watch Gore's movie.
Quite an interesting thread. I too won't be watching Gore's movie. Although I have some regrets for having voted for Bush (a 2nd time), I'm real glad that Gore isn't the US president.
Don |
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 02:37 AM |
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Joined: Mar 22, 2005
Posts: 962
Location: S. Florida
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Nobody can point to any factual errors in gore's movie yet its all 'leftist propaganda.'
Claiming science is 'leftist propaganda' is rightwing propaganda. |
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 02:47 AM |
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Joined: May 26, 2004
Posts: 2538
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
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Quote:
What part of al gore's movie isn't proven scientific fact?
The commentary, and the interpretation of those facts.
The movie is not a scientific dissertation but a sermon. It declares its objective up front and spends the next two hours presenting selected data with the open intention to convince viewers to accept the conclusion. There's nothing wrong with that, as long as the audience is aware that results which don't support the conclusion may have been omitted or misinterpreted in the interests of making a more forceful point. As an example of misinterpretation take the section I referred to above, where the raw data appears to show that historic greenhouse gas concentrations lagged climate change and were therefore an effect, but the commentary implied that they not only led it, but caused it. This latter view is of course the entire message, so it's difficult to see how Gore could have got away without mentioning historic levels entirely, but it must have given the script writers a few headaches.
The real problem with an issue like this is that it suppresses real, unbiased scientific study. It probably isn't a good idea to conduct climatic experiments on the only planet we've got, but we don't freakin' know because anyone taking an objective look that considers some of the conflicting evidence gets shouted down by the amen chorus. Regarding the absolute amount of CO2 in the atmosphere, I understand it's currently at an historic low (in geological time). If you consider how much atmospheric CO2 it took to make all the trillions of tons of limestone on the planet, there obviously used to be somewhat more of it about!
Quote:
Nobody can point to any factual errors in gore's movie yet its all 'leftist propaganda.'
Not all propaganda is leftist. Sometimes it's just quiche-eatin', latte-drinkin', Birkenstock-wearin' propaganda. But neither the political left nor the political right give a damn about good science, nor could they recognize it if they saw it. Their only interest in science is when they can use it to justify their own political agendas. |
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 02:50 AM |
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 2656
Location: Minneapolis
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Quote:
Claiming science is 'leftist propaganda' is rightwing propaganda.
I'm claiming it's not science to begin with.
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multi-decade delay where warming precedes the CO2
Confirm or disprove this and you'll show that one side is propaganda and the other is fact. |
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 02:59 AM |
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Joined: Nov 17, 2004
Posts: 6144
Location: Great Smokey Mountains.
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outer_space wrote:
What part of al gore's movie isnt proven scientific fact?
Just wondering.
Depends on YOUR definition of a 'scientific fact'. I'm sure it is liberally (har) sprinkled with generally accepted scientific fact, along with politically motivated distortions.
If YOU will take a little time to study the debate in the technical literature on the use of heat-island guesstimates in the global warming computer models, you will learn that these guesses are based on what will give them the data they want. There are few 'scientific facts' upon which to base the heat-island fudge factors - just swags on many levels. These models can be fed older data and used to predict what the weather will be like right now, and they fail - why should we believe that if they can't predict current weather based on past data that they could predict future weather based on current data?
You will also note that most of the scientists that constitute Gores 'overwhelming majority' will say that Global warming has been occurring over the past 35 years and it has. As I said above, they also leave out the fund killing fact that it was preceded by 35 years of global cooling following a well characterized 70 year cycle.
Both sides have very good arguments against each other which is IMHO the main argument that the issue isn't settled and doesn't warrant Draconian measures to fix a problem that hasn't been proven to exist.
It is truly pathetic to get ones science from a politician in a movie.
Smiley |
_________________
FREE TUTORIAL: 'Quick Start Guide for Using the WinAVR C Compiler with ATMEL's AVR Butterfly' AVAILABLE AT: http://www.smileymicros.com
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 03:00 AM |
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Joined: Mar 22, 2005
Posts: 962
Location: S. Florida
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I don't know what of polar icecore samples is misleading anyone. It shows data, it shows how CO2 levels are higher than they have been in 650,000 years. If that was what you meant, you could not be more vauge about what chart youre talking about.
Again, please point out flaws, because I hear many claims of dishonesty but no actual example.
Smiley, adjusting for the heat island effect is trivial. You only think that these scientists are formatting thier data to a desired result of chaos. Thats what right wing republicans do. |
Last edited by outer_space on Jan 11, 2007 - 03:10 AM; edited 1 time in total
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 03:04 AM |
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Joined: Sep 04, 2002
Posts: 21394
Location: Orlando Florida
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| If everyone on earth on except me 'knows' that .038% CO2 by volume makes the air hotter, can someone explain it to me? Can someone explain why the experiment I described with 3 colums of air with different % of CO2 will or will not confirm the assertion that more CO2 somehow 'captures' or 'reflects' heat and IR leaving earth back toward earth? |
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 03:11 AM |
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 2656
Location: Minneapolis
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Peret, your comments are thoughtful and logical, but how many right wing extremists fit the following:
Quote:
quiche-eatin', latte-drinkin', Birkenstock-wearin' propaganda
Quote:
Nobody can point to any factual errors in gore's
Are you actually reading the previous posts?
Quote:
regrets for having voted for Bush
As a right wing nut I also have complaints about the president: too weak on Iraqi insurgents and promoting a centrist domestic agenda. But under the circumstances he's done a pretty good job.
Code:
that Gore isn't the US president
If he was we'd have to end each post with "alla ahcbar". |
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 03:19 AM |
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Joined: Nov 17, 2004
Posts: 6144
Location: Great Smokey Mountains.
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outer_space wrote:
Nobody can point to any factual errors in gore's movie yet its all 'leftist propaganda.'
Claiming science is 'leftist propaganda' is rightwing propaganda.
I rank left-wing Al Gore and his chicken-little minions right up there with the right-wing creation science nut-bags.
You are petulantly demanding that someone show factual errors when you know damn well they have been shown here and elsewhere. Why don't YOU show that any of our assertions are wrong!. YOU try to poke a hole in either the 70 year cycle or in the argument against heat-island fudge factors.
Smiley |
_________________
FREE TUTORIAL: 'Quick Start Guide for Using the WinAVR C Compiler with ATMEL's AVR Butterfly' AVAILABLE AT: http://www.smileymicros.com
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 03:24 AM |
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 2656
Location: Minneapolis
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Quote:
that more CO2 somehow 'captures' or 'reflects' heat and IR
Bob, enough of your rightwing propaganda. I.e. don't confuse me with the facts! |
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 03:26 AM |
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Joined: Dec 01, 2003
Posts: 2507
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Quote:
Again, please point out flaws, because I hear many claims of dishonesty but no actual example.
Search out James Inhofe's "Skeptic's Global Warming
Guide". He has gathered together various material
in this article, which helps identify some of the
problem areas.
Tom Pappano
Tulsa, Oklahoma |
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 03:27 AM |
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Joined: Mar 27, 2002
Posts: 854
Location: Athens, Hellas
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Well, let's have a peek at what might be really happening at this "civilised" world during the last decades.
For starters, let's make an interesting experiment. I want you to return the first word that will come to your mind, after reading the word written down, below:
Conspiracy __________.
My bet is that most of the people will answer that the missing word is "theories".
There is a reason why this happens: We have been "programmed" to assosiate the word "conspiracy" with the word "theory". Why? Because there is no evil out there -no conspiraces... When? We are constantly being programmed since our birth. By whom? By our pre-programmed parents, our enviroment, our education institutions, our way of life, and the mass media. How? Whoever is trying to manipulate our conception has done anything to make us discredit such messages and their messengers, rather than pay attention to the actual messages.
Let me observe that there is a huge difference between a conspiracy theory and a conspiracy. A conspiracy theory is only a theory, an hypothesis, or an educated guess at the best; there is no evidence to support the alleged conspiracy but indications only -nothing solid to be based on. On the contrary, when there are evidence avaliable to support it, the conspiracy is no longer a theory and becomes a possibility; the more of the evidence exist, the more possible -or probable- the conspiracy becomes. But, unconsciously, we will discard any piece of information is connected to the term "conspiracy": We have been programmed to react this way.
Given the fact that, since the ancient times a big part of the global history is conspiracies, I always try to consider them whenever I am trying to understand what is really going on behind the curtains; whenever I try to connect the dots. I would never rule out a piece of evidence, just because it is claimed to be a conspiracy.
Do never, also, underestimate the power of propaganda. Quoted from a professional of this kind, John Edgar Hoover himself, "The individual is handicapped by coming face to face with a conspiracy so monstrous, he cannot believe it exists". And, to my knowledge, he has never been accused to be leftish! Propaganda is a matter of agendas; it is not a matter of wings -left or right: Both of them use it to pull their agendas through.
The art of propaganda is in a constant evolution, since the WWII era. Actually, the power of propaganda was the main tool Hitler had used to establish his dictarorship. He also used it to convince the German people that war was their only solution. The ignition of WWII was a self-inflict to Germany, Hitler fabricated: He set the Reichstag building on fire, blaming the enemies of Germany for this event. He led the people to war, and they were happy to follow him. He actually induced them to really want to go to war. This is the unquestionable power of propaganda.(*)
Programming: As long as we are kept in the dark we will never be able to make a correct analysis, or come to any viable conclusion: We will actually remain in hypotheses; in theories. That is why the mass media keeps feeding us with proffesional sports, silly games, lifestyle and gossip, blood, violence, and terror input: Distraction from the real events that should never make it to the public, and -of course- reprogramming and fine trimming of the masses.(**)
Education: There are all sorts of filtering devices to get rid of people who think independently, starting from the kindergartens and going all the way up to the univercities. People who don’t adjust to the structure, who don’t accept it and internalize, are likely to be weeded out along the way. If you finally make it to an elite institution, like the Harvard, Princeton, Yale, etc. (that depends on outside sources of support such as private wealth, big corporations with grants, and the government), you will go through a kind of socialization: They will teach you how to behave like a member of the upper classes, how to think the right thoughts, and so on. But, you will never be taught how to recognize the actual bits of information from a propaganda: "Your base has to belong to them"...
Mass Media: One of the most powerfull manipulation and deception recourses invented, ever...
George Papadopoulos (the military government dictatorship leader in Greece during the period 1967-1974) used to call the soccer game broadcasts as "the opium of the masses": When served at big doses it keeps the masses happy and numbed. This simple conseption has never stopped working flawlessly; not even today, despite of the significantly higher education statistics, globally...
Though we have been down this road before at the "Iran" thread, the exact role of the Media of Mass Deception is to feed you with the propaganda that serves some un-transparent and dark interests, and to drive you wherever the higher level of the administration order wants you to be: To make you an obedient and over-productive puppet (eg. to keep you preoccupied with foolish activities in order to disable your critical thinking, to force you be more productive by keeping you living through endless loans and purchasing useless products, to hold you under their total custody control by keeping you terrorized, to lead you to foreign wars that will make them wealthier and more powerfull, etc. -you name it).
Do not also let yourself believe that somebody could actually appear at the mass media and really disturb the administration's plans or interests: He would be bought out or be cancelled, before he could be able to expose any criminals of the elite or their activities to the public, or do any damage to the upper classes' plans. Sadly, this deceptive control really works for the simple-minded people, who are the vast majority of the global society. For the misdoubt minority ones, there will be controversial broadcasts that criticize the obvious mistakes and the misbehaviour of the administration order; but you will never get critical information that uncoveres and explains their ways and plans. As long as there are criminals that are protected by their scheme, not one of them will ever be exposed or be punished for their crimes. Whenever you see a member of this higher class society being exposed to the public, it is rather the system itself that actually trashes out a disobedient and unwanted member.
_____
Do I sense a strong denial in the air? Good, because this is the most expected reaction to any unpleasant stimuli. If I am correct, please, do not let me -or anyone else- telling you what we think is really going on in your country, whichever this might be.
If you think, or feel, that something is wrong (and, yes, this does remind the "Matrix"!), trust yourself and start your own research. Study History, as she uses to repeat herself. Filter your input carefully, keeping in mind that history is officially written by the winners. Do not make the common mistake to confuse the Government of a Country and its People: Those are two radically different entities. Keep in mind that huge fortunes cannot be obtained with honest means, and that they are not leftish nor rightish: Money is only a tool used to obtain Control. Whenever you can see a coincidence, ask yourself if the "coincidence" is manufactured to explaing something otherwise unexplainable; does the term "coincidence" really exist, or it is a series of connected actions and effects (consider the term "cosality")? Open your mind and start thinking for yourself; or else, somebody else will keep doing it for you; and of course, at your own expense. And, remember, if you want results do not to let anyone distract you from your objectives.
-George
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(*) Question: Do Hitler's tactics remind of any of the 9/11 events? Quid pro quo. Who really benefits from the two Patriot Acts, that followed those events as the ultimate solution, and the following oil-wars? Does anyone remember the ultimatum GWB gave the Iraqi people when he adressed them in public through the mainstream TV channels? He said it clearly: "Do not touch our oil wells!". What were the Patriot Acts really about? Were they meant to protect you and your families from the alleged terrorists, or to protect some dark interests from you and your constitutional/civl/human rights? All those rights you do not have any more, ever since: A democracy in name, a police state in fact. And, I am afraid that you are not alone in this bizarre situation; The whole world is leaning towards this governing model...
(**) Question: How many movie titles are you aware of, that were really meant to sharpen your critical thinking? Almost every movie title avaliable, goes through the same pattern: Introducing the problem and serving the solution -either directly or indirectly: Bed time stories for the little children... In the long term, you are actually being programmed not to search for the answers, but to wait for them to be served to you. You will need to try really hard to find a title that leaves the spectator or the reader with no answers provided, in order to start him thinking. |
_________________
I hope for nothing; I fear nothing; I am free! (Nikos Kazantzakis)
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 03:58 AM |
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Joined: Mar 22, 2005
Posts: 962
Location: S. Florida
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smileymicros wrote:
outer_space wrote:
Nobody can point to any factual errors in gore's movie yet its all 'leftist propaganda.'
Claiming science is 'leftist propaganda' is rightwing propaganda.
I rank left-wing Al Gore and his chicken-little minions right up there with the right-wing creation science nut-bags.
You are petulantly demanding that someone show factual errors when you know damn well they have been shown here and elsewhere. Why don't YOU show that any of our assertions are wrong!. YOU try to poke a hole in either the 70 year cycle or in the argument against heat-island fudge factors.
Smiley
Maybe there is a 70 year cycle and at the same time, global warming is taking effect. At least thats what the data shows. Please recall that data going back to 650,000 years ago was considered. |
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 04:37 AM |
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Joined: Dec 01, 2003
Posts: 2507
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Quote:
Maybe there is a 70 year cycle and at the same time, global warming is taking effect. At least thats what the data shows. Please recall that data going back to 650,000 years ago was considered.
Are you really seeking knowledge, or are you just
wanting someone to agree with your opinion?
Inhofe's article is loaded with enough info (with
citations)to keep you busy for at least a couple
of days. Do some actual research. 
Tom Pappano
Tulsa, Oklahoma |
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 04:39 AM |
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Joined: Jul 10, 2006
Posts: 2656
Location: Minneapolis
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Quote:
Maybe there is a 70 year cycle
Of course there is. There are a myriad of cycles and they sum to a complex phenomena called Earth's atmosphere. Thank you Fourier! The sun's output, the Earth's orbit and tilt and volcanic activity, asteroids: some are cyclic others a one-shot, but clearly the emissions of your Yugo are just a drop in the ocean. |
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 04:49 AM |
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Joined: Mar 14, 2006
Posts: 915
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Careful there George!
You are trying to make people think, and if you succeed, they will hate you.
If you point out to someone they are being lied to, they will hate you for that too.
You won't win.
Some Guy |
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Posted: Jan 11, 2007 - 04:51 AM |
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Joined: May 30, 2004
Posts: 8141
Location: Cincinnati, Ohio
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tpappano wrote:
Quote:
Again, please point out flaws, because I hear many claims of dishonesty but no actual example.
Search out James Inhofe's "Skeptic's Global Warming
Guide". He has gathered together various material
in this article, which helps identify some of the
problem areas.
Tom Pappano
Tulsa, Oklahoma
Gee, Tom, who else here, but you and me, would even know who Jim Inhofe is? Having lived in Tulsa, Oklahoma, I can say I do, but who follows interstate politics that close to even know that he is one of the "Good Guys" - a Republican Congressman, representing the good people of Oklahoma.
Now for the rest of you...
As for my opinion of "Global Warming"... The most sound statement made here today was (paraphraising) "If we can't accurately use the weather of the past to predict todays weather, how can we use todys weather to predict the weather of the future?"
These "So Called" junk yard scientist haven't got a clue about the cause and effects of global warming, anymore then I know how to build a malecular transporter. The cycles are just too long, with too many unknown variable to say even with the slightest certainty, what the global effects will be.
And, as to Al Gore - He's an idiot, plain and simple. He has no more business mouthing off about his junk science then I would running for the president of the United Stated. As a matter of fact, I'm probably more qualified to be the president if the United States then Al Gore is, claiming to be an expert on global warming.
It all apears to me to be mostly "Junk Science". If I listened to every "Wolf Cry" by every pessimist moving their mis-guided lips, I'd have to kill myself, just to save the planet. |
_________________
Carl W. Livingston, KC5OTL
microcarl@roadrunner.com
"There are only two ways to sleep well at night... be ignorant or be prepared."
The original Dragon Slayer !
Long live the AVR!!!
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